Author: Arvin Jayasuriya
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Sri Lanka’s IMF Baseline: Stability, Not Strength
Growth: Sri Lanka is expected to grow at around 3% a year through 2027. That is recovery, not transformation. It restores lost ground after the crash, but it does not absorb unemployment fast, rebuild buffers quickly, or create fiscal breathing space. Inflation: After the crisis spike, inflation is projected to settle near 5% by 2026–27. This is a hard-won