Amid debates about interest rates, security, and social media bans, a quieter story has been gaining traction online: Sri Lanka’s e-commerce sector is projected to grow steadily toward a multi-billion-dollar market by the end of the decade. It’s the kind of headline that excites investors, bores traditionalists, and leaves policymakers scrambling to catch up.

According to recent projections circulating on business platforms, Sri Lanka’s business-to-consumer e-commerce market could reach around USD 3.2 billion by 2029. For a country still recalibrating after economic shock, the number carries symbolic weight. It suggests not just growth, but behavioural change

On social media, the discussion has been less about projections and more about lived experience. Users trade anecdotes about delayed deliveries, cash-on-delivery dramas, and the peculiar trust economy that underpins online shopping in Sri Lanka. The digital marketplace has expanded faster than the infrastructure meant to support it — logistics, consumer protection, and dispute resolution lag behind ambition.

Still, the direction of travel is unmistakable. Younger consumers increasingly treat online platforms as default, not alternatives. Small businesses — particularly outside Colombo — have found social commerce a lifeline, bypassing traditional retail bottlenecks. Instagram storefronts and WhatsApp catalogues now sit comfortably alongside established platforms.

The state, as usual, is both present and absent. Policymakers speak enthusiastically about digitalisation, yet regulatory clarity remains patchy. Questions around taxation, data protection, and cross-border transactions surface regularly but rarely with urgency. For now, the market is running ahead of the rulebook.

What gives this story traction is its contrast with Sri Lanka’s traditional growth narratives. Unlike infrastructure megaprojects or state-led initiatives, e- commerce growth is incremental, decentralised, and largely consumer-driven. It doesn’t require ribbon- cuttings — just reliable connectivity and trust.

The risk, of course, is complacency. Growth projections are not guarantees, and digital enthusiasm can evaporate if confidence falters.

But for the moment, amid heavier national conversations, Sri Lanka’s e-commerce story offers something rare: cautious optimism powered less by policy and more by people clicking “buy now.”