Sunday business pages carried cautious optimism: private credit growth, stabilising indicators, and signs of economic normalisation. After years of contraction, even modest improvements feel significant.
But recovery headlines demand context.
Credit growth alone does not equal economic health. It matters who borrows, why, and for what duration. Consumption-led borrowing stabilises optics; investment-led borrowing builds capacity.
Sri Lanka’s current stability is engineered — through tight monetary policy, external support, and creative fiscal management. It is fragile by design.
Sunday optimism is understandable. People want good news. But economic recovery is not a mood. It is a structure.
Without productivity gains, export expansion, and institutional reform, credit growth becomes another temporary plateau. Stability is welcome. Mistaking it for transformation is not.
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