Cyclone Ditwah, which struck Sri Lanka in late November, has resulted in an estimated US$4.1 billion in direct physical damage to buildings, contents, agriculture, and critical infrastructure, according to a Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) report released by the World Bank Group. This figure is equivalent to approximately 4 percent of Sri Lanka’s gross domestic product (GDP).
As one of the most intense and destructive cyclones in Sri Lanka’s recent history, Ditwah severely impacted nearly 2 million people and 500,000 families across all 25 districts, disrupting livelihoods, essential services, and the wider economy.
The Sri Lanka GRADE report provides timely insights to support emergency response, recovery planning, and long-term disaster risk reduction. Utilizing the World Bank’s rapid, remote, model-based GRADE methodology, the assessment estimates the direct economic damage to physical assets. It does not account for income or production losses, nor the full costs of recovery and reconstruction.
The estimated US$4.1 billion in direct damage represents a substantial shock to the affected regions. Central province was the hardest hit, with damages in Kandy district alone estimated at $689 million, mainly due to flooding and, to a lesser extent, landslides.
Infrastructure—including roads, bridges, railways, and water supply networks—suffered the largest share of damage, totaling approximately $1.735 billion (42 percent of total damages). This has disrupted connectivity and access to essential markets and services.
Residential buildings and their contents were also severely affected, with damages estimated at $985 million. The widespread destruction of homes highlights the need for careful consideration of building locations, flood control measures, and resilient construction designs to withstand high winds and flooding.
Agriculture sustained an estimated $814 million in damage, affecting paddy and vegetable crops, subsistence farming, maize, livestock, agricultural infrastructure, and inland fishing. These losses pose significant risks to food security and rural livelihoods, especially in already vulnerable communities.
Non-residential buildings—including schools, health facilities, businesses, and large industrial facilities along major rivers and creeks—were heavily impacted, accounting for $562 million in estimated damages. This has interrupted education, healthcare delivery, and local economic activity in cyclone-affected areas.
The assessment highlights that pre-existing socio-economic vulnerabilities—including poverty, limited access to services, and exposure to climate risks—are likely to amplify the cyclone’s impacts and hinder recovery, particularly for women, children, older persons, and female-headed households. Targeted recovery efforts will be essential to ensure that support reaches the most at-risk communities.
“As we look closely at the hardest-hit districts, we see that deep-rooted vulnerabilities have left communities especially vulnerable,” said Gevorg Sargsyan, World Bank Group Country Manager for Sri Lanka and Maldives. “In Badulla, Kegalle, and Puttalam, many households were already poor and now face some of the highest losses to homes. In Kandy and Nuwara Eliya, about half of households are headed by women or older persons. Thousands of women and girls have been displaced or remain in unsafe homes. These realities underscore the need for tailored, community-centered recovery efforts that protect those most at risk.”
In the immediate aftermath of the cyclone, the World Bank Group has mobilized up to $120 million from ongoing projects to support recovery and help restore essential services and infrastructure—including healthcare, water, education, agriculture, and connectivity—in the hardest-hit areas.
While the GRADE report offers a rapid estimate of direct physical damage, the actual recovery and reconstruction needs are expected to significantly exceed these figures. The report emphasizes the importance of comprehensive recovery strategies that address humanitarian needs, restore livelihoods, strengthen resilient housing and infrastructure, and integrate climate and disaster risk considerations into future development.
The World Bank acknowledged the leadership of the Government of Sri Lanka in completing this assessment, which benefited from close collaboration with the External Resources Department, the Treasury, the National Planning Department, and the Disaster Management Centre.
The World Bank and GRADE
Disasters disproportionately impact the poor and most vulnerable. For over a decade, the World Bank’s Global Rapid Post-Disaster Damage Estimation (GRADE) approach has supported more than 54 countries by providing timely, evidence-based assessments to inform disaster-response decision-making. Over the past ten years, GRADE has completed 71 post-disaster assessments worldwide, with subsequent validations confirming approximately 90 percent accuracy compared to detailed, ground-based assessments.
The GRADE report for Sri Lanka was conducted and financially supported by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the Ministry of Finance of Japan, through the World Bank’s program for Mainstreaming Disaster Risk Management in Developing Countries, in collaboration with the World Bank.
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