Fitch Ratings has observed a decline in the global credit landscape since the release of its previous Global Credit Outlook in December. The ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran, along with the subsequent disruptions to oil supply, have emerged as key contributors to this situation.
As a result, a notable increase in the number of sectors and asset performance outlooks for 2026 has shifted to a ‘deteriorating’ status compared to the earlier evaluations made at the close of 2025. This alteration indicates that we anticipate a decline in operational and business conditions, or asset performance, particularly within structured finance sectors, for roughly one-third of the sectors we analyze. Additionally, macro-credit risks have escalated.
This worsening environment has prompted some rating downgrades and an increase in Negative Outlooks across specific sectors and regions; however, it has not significantly impacted the overall global portfolio. The notion of credit resilience, which was highlighted in our initial outlook for 2026, continues to hold true. A substantial portion of ratings remains under Stable Outlooks. Furthermore, the ratio of Positive to Negative Outlooks for both investment-grade and non-investment-grade categories has remained relatively stable for over two years. In summary, while the U.S.-Iran conflict and other significant trends during the first half of 2026 have exerted pressure on our expectations, they have not fundamentally altered our core projections for global credit this year.
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This stability is partially attributed to the temporary nature of the oil supply shock. Although the nearly four-month blockade of the Strait of Hormuz was impactful, our baseline forecast anticipates that Brent crude prices will stabilize around USD70 per barrel by the fourth quarter of 2026. Additionally, the surge in artificial intelligence (AI) investments has served as a robust support for global trade, especially benefiting technology exporters in Asia. The strong growth in U.S. capital expenditures, coupled with positive investor sentiment linked to AI, has bolstered demand even as the labor market shows signs of softening.
