Reuters – Indian sugar mills have returned to the export market, locking in 100,000 metric tons of shipments in a week after a slump in the rupee to a record low and a rally in global prices restored the economics of overseas sales, five dealers told Reuters.
Shipments from the world’s second biggest sugar producer will help Asian and African consumers to secure sugar at lower prices amid rising freight and global prices, which are trading near the highest level in five months.
“The war has suddenly changed everything. It has pushed global sugar prices up in anticipation of higher ethanol demand and dragged the rupee down to a record low,” said a Mumbai-based dealer with a global trade house.
“Export deals are finally picking up after weeks of no activity. About 100,000 tons have already been signed in the past week, and there’s likely more to come.”
Rising crude oil prices from the conflict in the Middle East have raised expectations that top sugarcane producer Brazil will divert more to ethanol production.
Indian sugar is being offered at around $450 per ton on a free-on-board (FOB) basis, with countries including Sri Lanka and African nations such as Djibouti, Tanzania, and Somalia booking shipments for April and May, dealers said.
Mills have so far contracted to export 550,000 tons in the current season ending in September, they said.
Total sugar exports this season could rise to around 1.5 million tons, as demand from Afghanistan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and the Middle East is expected to increase once the war ends, said Rahil Shaikh, managing director of Mumbai-based MEIR Commodities India.
India in February raised its sugar export quota to 2 million tons, adding 500,000 tons to the 1.5 million tons approved earlier. Mills applied for just 87,587 tons of the extra allocation, leaving most of it unused.
Demand for Indian sugar exists from overseas buyers, but logistical bottlenecks are weighing on exports, with container availability limited and freight rates rising, said a New Delhi-based dealer with a global trade house.
Asian buyers are likely to find Indian sugar attractive, as freight costs from India to South Asia are much lower than shipping sugar from Brazil, he said.
“With the rupee falling, mills are getting better prices by exporting than selling locally,” he added. The Indian rupee has fallen 4.5% so far in 2026 to a record low, while the Brazilian real has strengthened by 3%.
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