The recent abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and his wife by the United States is likely to embolden other authoritarian leaders who pose threats to neighboring countries, according to a UK-based think tank.
Bronwen Maddox, Director and Chief Executive of Chatham House, stated, “The consequences will take time to play out.” She added that Russia might use these actions by the US to justify its invasion of Ukraine, and China could reference Venezuela in its discussions about Taiwan.
Historically, Taiwan was a Japanese colony before being ‘inherited’ by pre-communist China under the Kuomintang (KMT) after Japan’s defeat in World War II. KMT leaders later retreated to Taiwan. In recent years, China has increased its aggressive actions not only towards Taiwan but also against countries like Vietnam and the Philippines, claiming islands in the South China Sea.
Chinese vessels have been involved in incidents with Vietnamese fishing boats in the region for several years. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin, likening himself to the historical figure Saint Vladimir, aims to re-establish a Greater Russia by reclaiming former territories of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union. Putin has used tactics similar to those of Hitler in his aggression toward Poland and Czechoslovakia, citing the oppression of Russian speakers by Ukrainian nationalists.
Prior to the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, Putin had already annexed parts of Georgia. In this geopolitical environment, former US President Donald Trump has been criticized for undermining NATO, an organization established after World War II to prevent aggressive wars, primarily spurred by German nationalism. The invasion of Poland, which prompted Britain to enter World War II, was facilitated by a secret agreement with the Soviet Union to divide the country.
Trump has also been accused of weakening the United Nations, an institution created post-World War II, succeeding the League of Nations, to maintain global peace. Operating on a nationalist platform, Trump threatened to annex Canada and Greenland, although his Make America Great Again (MAGA) base remains largely isolationist. Despite Trump’s assertion that the US would ‘run’ Venezuela, Secretary of State Marco Rubio has expressed a different stance.
Laurel Rapp, Director of the US and North America Programme at Chatham House, noted, “Trump and Rubio’s imprecise language about who currently runs Venezuela hints at limited succession planning, if any.” She also remarked that the US’s stated aim of achieving ‘peace, liberty, and justice for the great people of Venezuela’ is a lofty goal that could conflict with its desire to sell Venezuelan oil and recover losses for American oil companies.
Rapp further criticized Trump’s focus on commercial interests in Venezuela, arguing that it undermines the US’s position that it aims to protect Americans from a dangerous narcotics trafficker.
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